Tuesday 25 October 2011

十月底房市库存记录及预测 October Inventory/Sales/Listings record

十月  -  成交量 / 新上市量 – 比例  (sales/listings - ratio)
2011 – 2500-2800 / 4500-4800 ~ 57%?
2010 – 2337 / 3698 = 63%
2009 – 3704 / 4977 = 74%
2008 – 1364 / 4867 = 28%
2007 – 3028 / 4819 = 63%
2006 – 2722 / 4862 = 56%
2005 – 3099 / 4041 = 77%
2004 – 2734 / 3703 = 74%
2003 – 3765 / 4200 = 90%
2002 – 2866 / 3535 = 81%
十月总房源 / 消化速度 (月) (Total Inventory / Months of Inventory)
2011 ~ 16700 / ~6.3
2010 – 14075 / 6.0
2009 – 12084 / 3.3
2008 – 19257 / 14.1
2007 ~ 11500 / 3.8
2006 ~ 13000 / 4.8
2005 ~ 10000 / 3.2
看来今年十月的售出/上市房比例将是十年来第二至第三差
2011 十月总房源 将比 2010 高大约2500 单位,或是18%
以目前的销售速度,需要大于6个月才能消化掉房源 - 这算是十年来第二差
It appears this October’s [Sale/New Listing] Ratio may become the 2nd-3rd worst of the last decade.
It also appears that both Total Inventory and MOI will be the 2nd highest in at least the last 7 years (lacking Inventory data beyond 2005). Our current inventory count exceeds Oct 2010 by over 2500 units, an increase of 18%.

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