Saturday 30 June 2012

温东不再是避风港。 Vancouver East no longer safe haven.


连今年前几个月表现最好的 温东 Vancouver East, 现在也难逃跌势

温东 独立屋 6月成交量历史

2001 = 269
2002 = 203
2003 = 282
2004 = 243
2005 = 303
2006 = 396
2007 = 244
2008 = 139
2009 = 238
2010 = 145
2011 = 180
2012 = 107 ***6月29日

史上最低
比去年减少约40%
比08年减少过20%

温东独立屋房源从上个月的605增至现在的694
滞销从4个月房源增至6.5个月(买方市场)

Friday 29 June 2012

热钱躲起来了? Where did the HAM go?

大温地区
2012 上半年 成交量约 15071 
比起2011年上半,成交量减少 20%
比起2008年上半,成交量减少 7%
**************************************************


6月 列治文独立屋成交历史
2000 = 128
2001 = 160
2002 = 139
2003 = 166
2004 = 147
2005 = 248
2006 = 170
2007 = 198
2008 = 115
2009 = 204
2010 = 139
2011 = 158
2012 = 73 **6月28日

史上最低,比08年还低三分之一

**************************************************
6月 温哥华西区独立屋成交历史
2000 = 125
2001 = 189
2002 = 150
2003 = 180
2004 = 154
2005 = 185
2006 = 181
2007 = 177
2008 = 108
2009 = 200
2010 = 147
2011 = 213
2012 = 99 **6月28日

史上最低,比08年还低




* H.A.M. = "Hot Asian Money"

6月底 (2012) 大温地区 住宅单位

6月底 (2012) 大温地区 住宅单位
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 2423 vs 3262 (比去年同期大跌26%)
新上市: 5543 vs 5793 (比去年同期下降4%)
比例: 43.7% vs 56.3% (差13%)

6月底
总成交量达到10多年来6月最低。(与08年不相上下) 
总房源为10多年来6月最高: 约18850 (比去年上升25%)
= 需要7.8个月来消化 (以本月成交量计算) (去年为4.6个月)
= 继续深入买方市场 (>6个月房源)

__________________________________
历年来6月大温地区官方销售记录:
年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2002 2689 3850 69.8%
2003 3525 4301 82.0%
2004 3501 5594 62.6%
2005 4333 4742 91.4%
2006 3951 5460 72.4%
2007 4244 5533 76.7%
2008 2425 6546 37.0%
2009 4259 5372 79.3%
2010 2972 5544 53.6%
2011 3262 5793 56.3%
2012 2423 5543 43.7% (预测)



换句话说,历年的6月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有6-7个售出
而今年6月,每新上市10个房只有4个售出

财长Flaherty: 打房政策将造成房价下跌- 这是好事!

Cooling of housing market would be a good thing, Flaherty says
Published 45 minutes ago

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said the government is willing to accept the possibility of slower economic growth in exchange for cooling off the country’s housing market.

Flaherty, speaking on a conference call with reporters today, said he realizes the tougher mortgage rules he announced last week may have a “dampening effect” on the economy and the residential real eatate market.

“We’re prepared to take that risk, quite frankly, because of the greater risk of the development over time of a housing bubble,” he said, adding he’s “very concerned with the condo market in Canada’s largest cities.”
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1219238--cooling-of-housing-market-would-be-a-good-thing-flaherty-says

大温地区总房源

总房源继续处于10多年来最高峰
而成交量继续处于10多年来最低/次低


Thursday 28 June 2012

Richmond 地产经纪在房贷新政公开前便发表的负面报告

以下为Richmond 地产经纪James Wong 在6月16日 (在财长Flaherty 发表房贷新政之前几天) 发表的五月份列治文地产报告。

The total active listings for the 3 types of homes in Richmond now surpassed the highest listings registered in September, 2008.
总房源已大于史上最高点 - 2008年9月

The supply of homes in Richmond at the end of May at 9.08 months edged higher compared to the previous month’s figure at 8.07 months of inventory.
五月份已达9个月滞销,高过四月份8个月的滞销。 (大于6个月即为买方市场)


Daily price reductions are common as sellers adjust their selling prices to try to sell their homes.
每日可见到许多屋主降价,以求买方青睐。

Similarly, detached homes are having a tougher time to attract home buyers especially for detached homes that are over $900,000. 
大于$90万的独立屋很难找到买主。

Homes over $1,300,000 and new homes that are over $1.80 million are not selling well. With current level of supply, price erosion is evident when more sellers are reducing their prices, and transaction prices are trending down.
大于$1.3M 的独立屋 及大于$1.8M 的新房卖得不好。 以现在的滞销情况看来,房价已明显下跌。 愈来愈多的屋主开始减价求售。

There are 566 homes over $1,200,000 listed for sale in Richmond. With past 3 months average sale of 32 units, there are now 17.7 months supply of homes. 
目前列治文有556间大于 $1.2M 的房求售,但是这三个月来这类房每月只卖出32户。 造成现在有17.7个月 (一年半)的该类滞销房源。

Some seller’s who must sell will have to resort to much deeper price cut to sell their homes.
无论如何必须要卖的屋主,一定要大幅砍价才能尽快售出。

http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?p=823

。。。这篇报告,是在房贷紧缩新政之前发表的。
。。。而且,在6月底Richmond 将见近14个月的房源 (远大于五月份的9个月房源)

Wednesday 27 June 2012

Thanks again for donations

GF 衷心感谢 M.Chen 网友 捐款赞助这小站!
GF将继续致力于把真实的数据及客观的分析带来给各位读者。
Cheers!


Tuesday 26 June 2012

数名知名经济学家(诺贝尔奖得主)预测,世界将进入如1931年的大萧条

GF 还没有那么悲观,但是GF认为这次的经济危机严重度将超过2008年。

Is this 1931 all over again? Paul Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, Niall Ferguson and more think so
  Jun 25, 2012


Is the world about to repeat the economic catastrophe of 1931?
A growing chorus of economists of all stripes thinks so.


“Suddenly normally calm economists are talking about 1931, the year everything fell apart,” writes Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman in the New York Times.
“The parallels between Europe in the 1930s and Europe today are stark, striking, and increasingly frightening, write Bradford DeLong and Barry Eichengreen in the new preface to Charles Kindleberger, The World in Depression 1929-1939.
“We see unemployment, youth unemployment especially, soaring to unprecedented heights. Financial instability and distress are widespread. There is growing political support for extremist parties of the far left and right.”

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/25/is-this-1931-all-over-again-paul-krugman-nouriel-roubini-niall-ferguson-and-more-think-so/

Thank you for your donations

GF 再次感谢您的捐款!

GF 满载着正能量,继续下去这份hobby - which takes as much time as a part-time job, haha : )

Monday 25 June 2012

钓不到鱼。。。

列治文 Address:4320 RIVER RD, Riverdale, Richmond

March 09V868660$1,798,000$00%
April 02V868660removed
April 09V941651$1,898,000$00%
April 17V941651$1,688,000$-210,000-11%
April 27V941651$1,638,000$-260,000-14%
May 18V941651$1,500,000$-398,000-21%
June 07V941651removed
June 09V955563$1,425,000$-473,000-25%
June 22V955563$1,375,000$-523,000-28%
(待建空地)
政府估价: $1,695,600

温西 Address:3856 W 8TH AV, Point Grey, Vancouver West

May 12V949710$2,188,000$00%
Open House: May 19, 20
May 25V949710$1,998,000$-190,000-9%
Open House: May 26
June 14V949710$1,898,000$-290,000-13%
Open House: Jun 16
June 19V949710removed
June 23V958230$1,680,000$-508,000-23%
Open House: Jun 23, 24
政府估价: $2,087,300

温西 Address:4463 W 9TH AV, Point Grey, Vancouver West

March 09V929736$1,425,000$00%
April 03V929736$1,388,000$-37,000-3%
April 24V929736$1,299,000$-126,000-9%
June 19V929736$1,098,000$-327,000-23%
政府估价: $1,266,000

西温 Address:1083 DUCHESS AV, Ambleside, West Vancouver

March 09V922019$3,299,000$00%
March 10V922019$3,159,000$-140,000-4%
April 08V922019removed
May 09V942397$2,998,000$-301,000-9%
Open House: May 19, 26
Open House: Jun 02, 03, 10, 16, 23
June 21V942397$2,598,000$-701,000-21%
政府估价: $2,850,000

温西 Address:1909 TRAFALGAR ST, Kitsilano, Vancouver West

March 09V931179$1,880,000$00%
March 13V931179$1,790,000$-90,000-5%
March 26V931179removed
April 18V940272$1,688,000$-192,000-10%
May 18V940272$1,628,900$-251,100-13%
Open House: May 19, 26
Open House: Jun 02
June 13V940272$1,574,500$-305,500-16%
Open House: Jun 21, 24
June 23V940272$1,499,000$-381,000-20%
政府估价: $1,208,800


白石 Address:14373 MARINE DR, White Rock, White Rock

March 09F1128502$3,988,700$00%
March 17F1128502$3,278,000$-710,700-18%
May 29F1128502removed
June 23F1216442$3,188,700$-800,000-20%

本拿比 Address:6186 PORTLAND ST, South Slope, Burnaby

March 30V940192$1,499,000$00%
April 25V940192$1,388,888$-110,112-7%
May 23V940192$1,249,000$-250,000-17%
June 20V940192$1,198,888$-300,112-20%
政府估价: $1,309,100 (Property has more than one structure)


http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/2012/06/25/the-weekly-drop-june-25-2012/

Moody's: "加国为了避免房市在未来硬着陆的房贷新政,可能已经太迟了"

加国人民负债量早已超过安全额度。 加国政府上周为了让房市"软着陆/慢漏气"而推出的新政,可能已经来不及避开房市"硬着陆"。

Mortgage changes ‘may be too late’: Moody’s
  Jun 25, 2012 – 4:07 PM ET 
Last week’s mortgage changes unveiled by regulators and the federal government are positive for Canada’s banks, but “may be too late to avoid a housing correction,” according to analysts at Moody’s Investors Service.
In a weekly credit outlook report published Monday, Moody’s analysts William Burn and Andriy Stepanyants said shorter loan amortization periods should immediately cool home sales by requiring increased monthly payments.
“However,” the analysts note, ” the government’s moves may have come too late, owing to the build-up in consumer debt that has already occurred.” In addition, slowing growth in household disposable income will be a challenge for consumers trying to pay down their debts, they said.

温哥华市公寓猛盖, 16栋兴建中,67栋已策划

这数据只包括温哥华市 (i.e. 不包括列治文,本拿比等)。
GF: 2011年下半买公寓的,大部分都亏了。而手上还有楼花的,现在应该要着急了。


Vancouver sprouting cranes with 16 condo towers in progress and 67 others in the works

Cheryl Chan, The Province

Published: Sunday, June 24, 2012
Amid newly-tightened mortgage rules and concerns of an over-supply in the Toronto condo market that prompted financial authorities including Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney to sound an alarm this week, we think we've earned the right to ask: Is Vancouver oversaturated with condos?
Here's some sobering figures.
Housing starts in Vancouver are up in the first five months of 2012 compared to the same period last year, driven largely by multiple-unit dwelling construction – which is up by about 50 per cent from last year.
According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 5,503 condo units are under construction in Vancouver in April, adding to the existing 230,000 units already in the city.

Friday 22 June 2012

6月1-22日 大温销售数据 (完整版)



2012 vs 2011
成交量: 1771 vs 2326 (下降24%)
新上市: 4005 vs 4133 (下降3%)
比例: 44% vs 56% (差12%)

预测6月底
总成交: 2400-2500 (比去年下跌~24%) *可能低于2008,史上最低
总新上市: 5800-6000 (比去年持平/微升) *只低于2008
总房源: 19000 = 需要7.7个月来消化 (以本月成交量计算)
= 继续深入买方市场 (>6个月房源)

6月底预测:
1. 独立屋 成交量
- Richmond 列治文: 成交量较去年下跌48%
- Van West 温西: 成交量较去年下跌50%
- West Van 西温: 成交量较去年下跌66%
- Burnaby 本拿比: 成交量较去年下跌31%
- North Van 北温: 成交量较去年下跌40%

2. 非独立屋 成交量
- Richmond 列治文: 成交量较去年下跌26%
- Van West 温西: 成交量较去年下跌17%
- Van East 温东: 成交量较去年上升21% - 是大温唯一表现较好的区


3. 大温独立屋均价: 比5月微跌1%, 比去年跌10%

4. 独立屋 房源上涨速度最快的 (比5月)
第一: 温东 Van East 独立屋: +8%
第二: 西温 West Van 独立屋: +7%
第三: 本拿比 Burnaby 独立屋: +6%
第四: 北温 North Van 独立屋: +6%

4. 滞销 (以月计)
Richmond 独立屋 – 14
West Van 独立屋 – 12
Van West 独立屋 – 10
Burnaby 独立屋 - 8
Van East 独立屋 - 6
North Van 独立屋 - 6

(大于6个月就是所谓"买方市场")
(4-6个月为"平衡市场")
(小于4个月为"卖方市场")

Richmond 非独立屋 - 9.5
Van West 
非独立屋 - 7
Van East 非独立屋 - 4.5



展望: 大温房市6月表现继续衰退。房价继续面临往下的压力。
而加国财长在7月9日将实施新一轮打房政策,
大温房市即使没有打房新政,也不断走下坡
7-8月份大温跌幅将加剧。


6月底-7月中极可能是卖方最后的脱手兑现机会,以减少损失。
而现在至8月,是买方最不应该入市买房的时候。
若不急, 买方应至少等到年底(或明后年) ,看清趋势再考虑是否买房。

GF 帖子荣登 地产中心头条

GF 撰写的 "如何面对7月9日政府房贷新政?" 荣登北美中文网地产中心头条 (已在首页一整天), GF 在此感谢 Westca.com 主编提拔 icon_cool.gif 

quote 个最后一段:
 写道:
若你是卖方:在7月9日前应尽量快快成交。因为之后,大量买方能借到的贷款会明显减少。所谓的"刚需" 还是受限于能拿到的贷款量。

若你是买方: 不要在现在至8月买房 - 其实最好今年不要买房。 新政实施后,有能力与你竞争的买家将明显减少, 房价将加速下滑。

最后,我预测,大温房市将在2012下半加速下滑 (大温房市本来就已处于下跌管道,现在将更加严重)。 公寓/城市屋/独立屋将全受到打击,而最先受打击的是首次买房者购买的房型。


看看comments 评论区,蛮有意思的。
www.westca.com/House/a...inese.html

Thursday 21 June 2012

鱼难钓

Richmond:

Address:6140 MARA CR, Granville, Richmond
March 09V931950$1,938,000$00%
March 20V931950removed
March 22V938480$1,879,000$-59,000-3%
April 03V938480removed
April 25V945428$1,897,000$-41,000-2%
May 23V945428$1,879,000$-59,000-3%
June 04V945428removed
June 07V954888$1,719,000$-219,000-11%
June 14V954888removed
June 21V957754$1,299,000$-639,000-33%
Open House: Jun 23, 24
Assessment: $1,168,000 (Building Unfinished at time of assessment)
Address:# 301 8700 JONES RD, Brighouse South, Richmond
May 09V948547$539,000$00%
June 06V948547$499,000$-40,000-7%
June 13V948547$468,000$-71,000-13%
June 20V948547$399,000$-140,000-26%
Assessment: $467,000
Burnaby
Address:6836 HERSHAM AV, Highgate, Burnaby
March 09V925240$1,199,000$00%
March 24V925240$1,148,000$-51,000-4%
May 15V925240removed
May 19V951269$999,900$-199,100-17%
Open House: May 26
Assessment: $782,000 (Building Unfinished)

Address:7545 WHELEN CT, Deer Lake, Burnaby
March 09V932130$1,877,000$00%
May 16V932130$1,777,000$-100,000-5%
June 06V932130removed
June 11V955744$1,499,000$-378,000-20%
Assessment: $1,611,000
Address:6186 PORTLAND ST, South Slope, Burnaby
March 30V940192$1,499,000$00%
April 25V940192$1,388,888$-110,112-7%
May 23V940192$1,249,000$-250,000-17%
June 20V940192$1,198,888$-300,112-20%
Assessment: $1,309,100 (Property has more than one structure)

Address:6929 WILLINGDON AV, Metrotown, Burnaby
March 09V928594$998,800$00%
March 19V928594$928,000$-70,800-7%
April 09V928594$898,000$-100,800-10%
May 07V928594removed
May 10V949092$849,900$-148,900-15%
Open House: May 19
May 31V949092$799,000$-199,800-20%
Assessment: $871,900
Address:8443 13TH AV, East Burnaby, Burnaby
March 09V933528$1,888,000$00%
April 11V933528$1,500,000$-388,000-21%
May 08V933528removed
May 11V949298$1,399,000$-489,000-26%
Assessment: $1,020,000