Saturday 29 September 2012

September 2012 vs 2011 sales stats

9月底 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
Sales 成交量: 1510 vs 2246 (同比下降33% YoY,环比下降8% MoM)
New List 新上市: 5230 vs 5680 (下降8%)
Ratio比例: 29% vs 40% (差11%)

Months of Inventory:
滞销量:12-12.4月 (预计) vs 7.2月 (同比)

大温地区滞销量在9月底将达到12-12.4个月,比上个月 (10.7个月)再增约1.5个月的滞销房源,
比7月 (8.6个月) 增加4个月的滞销房源,完全深入买方市场

2012 滞销程度与 08年相当,甚至超过。

年份 成交量 新上市 成交/上市
  2001 2155 3155 68.3%
  2002 2476 3447 71.8%
  2003 3357 4082 82.2%
  2004 2853 4946 57.7%
  2005 3344 4590 72.9%
  2006 2519 5115 49.2%
  2007 2776 4770 58.2%
  2008 1585 6142 25.8%
  2009 3559 5746 61.9%
  2010 2220 4731 46.9%
  2011 2246 5680 39.5%
  2012 ~1510 ~5230 ~29%

今年看来是最近10多年成交量最低的9月, 低过2008。

Tuesday 25 September 2012

大多新公寓成交量急跌 67.2%, 有史以来8月最低



http://www.bildgta.ca/media_releases...ail.asp?id=888


Canada New Home Sales Plunge 64 Percent; Lowest August on Record
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...4-percent.html

步向大温后尘。

Monday 24 September 2012

Should we stop encouraging home ownership?

"我们应该停止呼吁他人买房"
Should we stop encouraging home ownership?

Posted: Sep 24, 2012 

 

"I don't know that home ownership should be a right and that it should be backed by taxpayer dollars and kind of be the prime mandate of a Crown corporation," says Ben Rabidoux, creator of the Economic Analyst blog, which looks into housing and mortgage trends.

9月21日 update

9月1-21日 大温销售数据
  2012 vs 2011
  成交量: 1129 vs 1657 (下降32%)
  新上市: 4033 vs 4176 (下降4%)
  比例: 28% vs 40% (差12%)
  预计月底成交量: 1530 vs 2246 (同比下降32%,环比下降7%)
  预计月底总房源: 18900 vs 16085 (同比上升18%)
  滞销量:12.2-12.6月 (预计) vs 7.2月 (同比)

  大温地区滞销量在9月底将达到12.2-12.6个月,比上个月 (10.7个月)再增约两个月的滞销房源,比7月 (8.6个月) 增加4个月的滞销房源,完全深入买方市场

  
  2012 滞销程度与 08年相当,甚至超过。

  年份 成交量 新上市 成交/上市
  2001 2155 3155 68.3%
  2002 2476 3447 71.8%
  2003 3357 4082 82.2%
  2004 2853 4946 57.7%
  2005 3344 4590 72.9%
  2006 2519 5115 49.2%
  2007 2776 4770 58.2%
  2008 1585 6142 25.8%
  2009 3559 5746 61.9%
  2010 2220 4731 46.9%
  2011 2246 5680 39.5%
  2012 ~1530 ~5500 ~28%

  今年可能是最近10多年成交量最低的9月, 低过2008。

Sunday 16 September 2012

列治文地产经纪: 跌幅加大,将持续几年,越早卖亏越少

上个月预测Richmond独立屋3年内下跌30%的地产经纪 James Wong, 昨日刚发表8月份列治文地产分析:

“August was another disappointment for many home sellers who were hopeful of selling their homes.
The real estate market in Richmond deteriorated further in August.The lack of buying activities and large number of listings continued to exert pressure on home sellers to cut their prices in order to sell their homes. There are many more homes listed at or below their city assessment values.
八月再次带来了另卖方失望的消息。列治文八月房市恶化加剧。 在买方缺乏,及总房源持高的现状下,卖方面临巨大压力降价。 本月叫价低于政府估价的状况更为普遍。 

There are no signs of the market in Richmond getting better. With the onset of the seasonally slower months in the fall, it is unlikely the last 3 months of 2012 will bring any relief to home sellers who are desperate to sell.
For sellers who have to sell, the only way out is to cut prices… not just 5%, a much deeper cut of 10% to 15% is required.

列治文房市没有任何改善的迹象。年底前必须卖房的屋主将面临更大挑战。 急着脱手的屋主必须降价。不是区区5%, 而是10%至15%。
A prolonged period of low sales, and declining home prices could take many years to play out. Declining home prices will erode seller confidence, resulting in more motivated home sellers to cut prices to sell before home prices drop further.
这个价量齐跌的房市很可能会持续许多年。 下降的房价必将腐蚀卖方的信心,造成更多必须卖的屋主积极降价,造成整体房价持续下降。

A real estate down cycle is already in motion, and just like from 1995 to 2001, the real estate market in Richmond will have a persistent high level or homes for sale, and few buyers willing or able to buy due to tighter lending rules.

房市已经进入下跌周期,就像1995-2001年一般。 列治文房市将面临多年的低迷成交量及大量房源。 政府新一轮的"打房"政策将抑制买家买房的能力。

Richmond detached homes over $1,000,000 are not seeing much buying interest. With total active listings of 721 and average sale around 26 homes the past 3 months, there are 26 months supply of homes. For detached homes over $1,500,000, there are currently 366 homes for sale. With an average past 3 months sale of 12 homes, this translates into 30 months supply of homes.

列治文大于$1M 的独立屋房市不受青睐,现在房源为721, 而3个月来平均每月才卖出26户,房源滞销达到超过26个月。

列治文大于$1.5M 的独立屋房市更加低迷,现在房源为366, 而3个月来平均每月才卖出12户,房源滞销达到超过30个月。


Early sellers would consider themselves the smart ones, cashing out long before others!
早起的鸟儿有虫吃。 比别人早卖出兑现的屋主为智者。

http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?p=841

Saturday 15 September 2012

加拿大经济半月刊: 加拿大房市泡沫破灭已开始,温哥华抢先


Canada's housing crash begins

By Joe Castaldo  | September 14, 2012
In just one year, Vancouver house prices have dropped by 12%, and unit sales are plummeting in both Vancouver and Toronto.
People have been predicting a crash in Vancouver for years, of course. What’s different now is the growing number of trends suggesting its imminence. The poor global economy is souring foreign investors’ appetite for expensive property overseas. The federal government, meanwhile, is trying to tame the market by tightening mortgage lending standards and warning the public at every opportunity that Vancouver is a risky city for buying real estate. Interest rates are still low, but the Bank of Canada keeps promising to raise them, which would quickly lower affordability. All of which leads David Madani, an economist with Capital Economics, to conclude: “The Vancouver market has cracked.”
Vancouver won’t be the only one. The next market to crack will be Toronto, starting with the city’s overheated condo segment.
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/98306--canada-s-housing-crash-begins

Thursday 13 September 2012

BC government to immediately launch new round of major cuts


BC 省政府将立即开始大幅度删减开支。
将停止征新工作,拒绝公营主管人员加薪,同时以更强硬的态度对待谈判桌另一边的工会。

The B.C. government will immediately launch a new round of major cuts because of a three-year, $1.1-billion hit to provincial revenues caused by plummeting natural gas prices, Finance Minister Mike de Jong announced Thursday.
Speaking to reporters, de Jong promised an immediate hiring freeze across government and a wage freeze for public sector managers, including those at schools, universities and health organizations. He also signalled a possible ratcheting-up of the already tense negotiations between the province and its public sector unions.
“Call these austerity measures — they are designed to immediately curtail spending in areas where government has some discretion”

September sales & inventory projections

9月1-12日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 566 vs 831 (下降32%)
新上市: 2254 vs 2084 (上升8%)
比例: 25% vs 40% (差15%)

预计月底成交量: 1500 vs 2246 (同比下降33%)
预计月底总房源: 19000 vs 16085 (同比上升18%)

滞销量:12.4-12.8月 (预计) vs 7.2月 (同比)

大温地区滞销量在9月底将达到12.4-12.8个月,比上个月 (10.7个月)再增约两个月的滞销房源,比7月 (8.6个月) 增加4个月的滞销房源,完全深入买方市场


2012 滞销程度与 08年相当,甚至超过。

年份 成交量 新上市 成交/上市
2001 2155 3155 68.3%
2002 2476 3447 71.8%
2003 3357 4082 82.2%
2004 2853 4946 57.7%
2005 3344 4590 72.9%
2006 2519 5115 49.2%
2007 2776 4770 58.2%
2008 1585 6142 25.8%
2009 3559 5746 61.9%
2010 2220 4731 46.9%
2011 2246 5680 39.5%
2012 ~1500 ~5900 ~25%

今年可能是最近10多年成交量最低的9月, 低过2008。

Tuesday 11 September 2012

MISH talks Canada

权威级经济分析家 "MISH" (Mike Shedlock) 今日详谈加拿大极度的房市泡沫及暗淡的经济前景。
Canadian Exports Collapse, Expect Plunge in GDP; China Factor; US Recession Factor
All major Canadian exports including energy, autos, agriculture, forest products and machinery-and-equipment collapsed in the latest report. Canadian analysts are shocked by the news.

I sure am not.

For my reason, look at happenings in China, a huge recession in Europe, and even a recession in the US that surprisingly few have even figured out yet.

The Globe and Mail reports Sharp trade slowdown set to wallop GDP

Canada Housing Bubble

100% without a doubt, Canada is in the midst of an immense housing bubble. The Canadian bubble outlasted bubbles in China and Australia. Because it did, I get taunts from Canadian readers all the time.

I received one just yesterday. It went something like this "So Mish, where's your Canada Housing Collapse?"

The answer, as always is "I don't know". That said, bubbles pop by definition. Moreover, the longer the bubble lasts, the bigger the implosion.

Australia is in the midst of a big property bubble collapse, a big retail collapse, and a big export mining collapse all at the same time.

Canada will follow suit at some point and given taunts out of the blue, now is as good a time as any.

Sunday 9 September 2012

China Iron Ore and Steel price charts

中国铁矿石价格走势图 (iron ore)
http://futures.xinhua08.com/bd/tks/
(vertical bar = inventory)

中国铁矿石现货交易8月陷入冰点 价格加速下滑
(China's iron ore trade plummeting to frigid levels in August, price decrease picking up pace)http://news.cnfol.com/120908/101,1280,13173366,00.shtml

中国钢铁价格走势图 (steel)
http://www.zh818.com/chart/

keep watching

Vancouver board to lay off dozens of staff, close school, drop 10 days


大温教育局即将(继续)裁员,关闭至少一间学校,然后减少最多10天的学年天数。
Vancouver board to lay off dozens of staff, close school, drop 10 days
Sep 06 2012 G&M
“The Vancouver School Board says it’s poised to lay off dozens of staff, close at least one school and shave up to 10 days from the school year, citing an $18.1-million shortfall that it blames entirely on the provincial government.
The Vancouver board – the second largest in British Columbia – is the latest district to threaten layoffs and school closings. Last week, the Richmond board warned that up to 100 teachers, assistants and administrators could lose their jobs. In Prince George, officials have voted to close six schools.”
quality of public eduction in Vancouver will become more and more worrisome..

大温失业率慢慢提高。。
Vancouver unemployment rate creeping up:
Apr 2012: 6.2% (7.3% Canada)
May 2012: 6.4% (7.3% Canada)
Jun 2012: 6.4% (7.2% Canada)
Jul 2012: 6.8% (7.3% Canada)
Aug 2012: 6.8% (7.3% Canada)

Friday 7 September 2012

Benjamin Tal: count on young buyers and immigrants to support our housing market? Counter-arguments

1. other point of view, from today's news:
Sep. 06 2012
  Doors shutting on first-time buyers
  
 写道:
The Toronto and Vancouver housing markets have cooled rapidly in the wake of Ottawa’s latest bid to stop a bubble, with many first-time buyers knocked out of the running.
  Finance Minister Jim Flaherty put the July 9 changes into effect to curb growing mortgage debt levels and take some steam out of house prices. Among other things, the new rules cut the maximum length of insured mortgages to 25 years from 30.
  Among the latter is Toronto-Dominion Bank chief economist Craig Alexander, who estimates that national home prices are 10 to 15 per cent too high.


- of course, my view is that 10-15% correction may be a gross understatement.

2. don't underestimate Jason Kenney.
latest:   New immigration system puts greater emphasis on language, age
  
 写道:
The proposed revisions , to go into effect next January, will put more emphasis on age (ie: younger immigrants), language skills and professional credentials equivalent to Canada's — while de-emphasizing work experience abroad.
  The problem with the current point system is that those that don't fluently speak one of Canada's official languages, or those whose education credentials don't transfer over to Canada, can still reach the 67 mark.
  These new rules are meant to attract immigrants who can, theoretically, be successful in jobs in their field of study.


3. don't underestimate demographic changes, including inter-provincial out-migration, population aging (1st wave of baby boomers hitting 65-66 years of age already)

4. HELOC & other OSFI changes, plus CMHC's rapidly declining projected mortgage insurance-in-force, will no doubt further constrain mortgage/loan credit availability.

5. Household debt at peak levels.
Today's news: Recession risk grows due to indebted consumers
- a housing downturn in a city whose economy is heavily dependant on RE-related industries, coupled with declining consumer spending from the recession, will result in decreased income and job losses.


Agreed a "healthy" correction will occur.
question is, how much is "healthy", and how much is "too much".

based on price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios, if reversion to the mean is "healthy", then -30% to -40% correction will bring Vancouver housing price down to "healthy" levels.

*archived from Chinese forum:  http://www.westca.com/Forums/viewtopic/t=464447/lang=schinese.html

Thursday 6 September 2012

Will it be 2008-09 again?

大温地区在08年5月至12月 指标价跌掉了15%。

大温地区在今年5月至8月 指标价跌掉了2.5%。

从2012年9月到年底的大温房市会如何呢? 会如同08年,见到指标价再跌11.5%吗?
那2013年春/夏我们会见到2009年春/夏的房市大逆转吗?

GF 预测,
根据目前房源滞销的动态,我们目前的状况虽然非常接近2008年夏末, 但可能不会在未来4个月见到-11.5% 的跌幅。
未来几个月,我们将更明显地见到政府最新一轮打房政策的成效 (CMHC + OSFI 双重紧缩).
贷款的紧缩,世界经济的低迷 (尤其是中国及欧洲,但加拿大及美国也不例外), 人口外流,失业率攀升,人民负债率达到巅峰,消费者信心下跌 等等,全会在中短期负面影响房市。

GF 认为,在2012年底我们可以指望见到地产局HPI Price比8月底下跌4-6%。 比5月(最高点) 下跌 7-9%

但我们会见到2013年春带来2009年般的大逆转吗?
让我们先看看加国央行在2008-2009作了什么举动:
第一,财长经过CMHC, 帮银行担保了手上大量的房贷风险,进而促进银行借出新房贷。
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/05/24/the-real-canadian-bank-bailout/
但CMHC已濒临房贷担保的限额 ($600B) , 而政府计划不再提高此额度。
CMHC未来几年的财务规划已假设将以极大幅度缩紧借贷。

第二,央行为了刺激经济,大幅减息:
2008-5月到9月的prime rate 利息为4.75%
2008-10月减息 0.75%.
2008-12月再减息 0.50%
2009-1月 再减息 0.50%
2009-3月 再减息 0.50%
2009-4月 再减息 0.25%, prime rate 降到 2.25%

在半年利息降了2.5%

2012-8月的prime rate 为3%
央行一再表态"利息将上升"
分析师大致预测央行将最早在2013年中旬加息。
我们在未来半年不会再见到大幅度的降息。 
即使经济面临极度严峻的挑战,央行若真得必须降息,顶多降0.25-0.5%。
GF 认为利息在未来半年持平或上升的几率大于90%。

所以,GF预测2013年上半,我们将见到房价继续腐蚀。
虽然不会跌得像08年下半地猛,但跌势将持续远超过区区半年。
GF 继续预测大温房价跌势将维持: 乐观估计3年, 悲观估计 大于6年

Burnaby 8月数据及9月展望

本拿比独立屋HPI指标价已从2012-6月最高点($1,013,600) 下调1% 至 $1,005,800。 

而中位数价从2011-9月最高点 (1,006,500) 下调7.2% 至现在的 $934,500

2012-8月 本拿比独立屋成交量=42户, 
比7月少 28%, 比去年8月少 56%。 比2008年还低。
换句话说,2012年为史上本拿比独立屋成交量最低的8月。

本拿比独立屋已超过15个月的房源, 仅次于西温 (>24个月) 及 列治文 (>24个月). 

本拿比已在一年来由热转冷, 目前已完全深入买方市场,价格下滑压力沉重。

Wednesday 5 September 2012

Vancouver West SFH - Aug 2012

就如GF之前说过,几个极高价位 (>$10M) 的豪宅在8月成交,
造成温西独立屋均价 (Average price) 大幅上扬。 
但温西独立屋 中位数价 (Median) 及 HPI指标价 双双下跌。

中位价环比下跌2.9%, 同比下跌7.7% (Median price)
指标价环比下跌2.5%, 同比下跌3.7% (HPI price)
成交量环比下跌 10%, 同比下跌 42% (Sales)

下跌趋势够明显了。


August prediction & facts

独立屋 预测 与 事实:

1. 西温: 本月成交量可能不到30, 比7月少 40%, 比去年8月少 65%
-> 成交量只有24。 环比 -48%, 同比 -70%。 

2. 列治文: 本月成交量与7月相当,比去年8月少 40%。 超过20个月的房源滞销。房价已经下跌。地产局HPI指标价若不跌就有问题。
-> 成交量与7月相当, 比去年8月少40%。 HPI 指标价 环比 -0.5%, 同比 -3.7%。

3. 温西: 本月成交量与7月相当,比去年8月少 37%。 空地价位已从最高点降了约10%。
-> 成交量比7月少 10%, 比去年8月少 42%。 HPI 指标价 环比 -2.5%, 同比 -3.7%。

4. 温东: 本月成交量可能不到80, 比7月少 30%, 比去年8月少 50%。 比2008年还低。
-> 成交量79, 比7月少 28%, 比去年8月少 47%。 比2008年还低。

5. 本拿比: 去年的英雄变成今年的狗熊。本月成交量约40, 比7月少 30%, 比去年8月少 60%。 比2008年 (44)还低。
-> 成交量42, 比7月少 28%, 比去年8月少 56%。 比2008年还低。

大温独立屋HPI指标价应会下跌,但均价会上升,因为有少数高价位房成交。
-> 大温全区 HPI 指标价环比下跌 1.1%, 同比下跌0.5%。 而均价如预期上升。

2012-8 REBGV Stats Package

2012-8 大温房市官方数据 Aug REBGV Stats (PDF)

2001-2012 archives see here