Wednesday 30 January 2013

Some West side/downtown sales

214-2250 Wesbrook Mall 
Leasehold strata
原开价 749k
降价后 698k,668k
成交价 618k
Assessed 667k (-7.3%)

1221 W 41 ave
Big 8126 sq ft lot
原开价 1,688k
成交价 1,635k
Assessed 1,724k (-5.2%)

56 W king Ed ave
Nice 4600 sq ft home on 7500 sq ft lot
原开价 1,980k
成交价 1,930k
Assessed 2,243k (-14%)

2837 w 43 ave
原开价 2,298k
成交价 1,975k
Assessed 2,088k (-5.4%)

2005-1067 w Cordova st
1 bdr 900 sq ft at Shaw towers
原开价 749k
降价后 738k
成交价 700k
Assessed 755k (-7.3%)

1101-2020 Highbury st
原开价 1,575k
成交价 1,292k
Assessed 1,394k (-7.3%)

3556 w 19 ave
Bought: 1,658k (2012-4月)
Now asking: 1,598k
assessment: 1,466k
(即使以100%要价成交,还是在9个月内亏>$100k)

source: real estate talks forum

Saturday 26 January 2013

Richmond SFH Sales Stats

Only 32 SFH was sold in Richmond in Jan/13 so far

Richmond SFH Sales History:
Jan 2011: 162
Jan 2012:  89 
Jan 2013: <45 (-50% vs 2012, -72% vs 2011)

10471 Bissett dr
原开价 838k
降价后 815k,799k
Sold 765k
Assessed 797k (-4%)

4240 Garry st
原开价 899k
降价后 859k
Sold 800k
Assessed 847k (-5.6%)

3500 Trumond dr
原开价 889k
降价后 848k
Sold 821k
Assessed 887k (-7.5%)

8311 St Albans rd
原开价 948k
降价后 898k
Sold 840k
Assessed 1,031k (-18.5%)

10100 St Vincent's pl
原开价 1,100k
降价后 998k
Sold 945k
Assessed 990k (-4.6%)

10220 St Johns ct
原开价 1,015k
Sold 980k
Assessed 1,151k (-14.9%)

8651 Rosemary ave
原开价 1,658k
降价后 1,428k
Sold 1,420k
Assessed 1,475k (-3.7%)

5540 no 1 rd
原开价 1,049k
Sold 985k
Assessed 1,172k (-16%)

9331 Capella dr
原开价 1,098k
Sold 1,026k
Assessed 1,114k (-7.9%)

10489 Ainsworth cr
原开价 765k
Sold 699k
Assessed 734k (-4.8%)

10840 Maddoaks rd
原开价 726k
Sold 700k
Assessed 723k (-3.2%)

7639 Eperson rd
原开价 1,288k
Sold 1,194k
Assessed 1,217k (-1.9%)

source

Jan 1-25 Greater Vancouver Stats

Jan 1-25
2013 vs 2012
Sales: 1050 vs 1261 (-17% YoY)
New Lists: 4232 vs 4978 (-15% YoY)
Ratio: 24.8% vs 25.3%

Est Month end sales: 1325 vs 1577 (-16%
*Jan/13 has 1 more work day vs '12
Est Month end new lists: 4950 vs 5756 (-14%)
Est Month end inventory: 13200 vs 12544 (+5%)
MOI:9.5-10.5 months vs 8 (Jan/12)

Greater Vancouver MOI, estimated to be ~10 by end of January, will continue to stay well in buyer's market territory.
January 2013 sales and sale/new list ratio will likely continue to be 2nd worst in the last decade.
However, new lists are markedly fewer than same period in 2012.  Judging from sentiments on Chinese forums, I have a feeling many potential sellers are waiting for the "traditional spring market"  commencing after Chinese New Year (Feb 10).  We shall see.

I would expect the REBGV HPI benchmark price to continue decreasing both YoY and MoM.

大温地区滞销量在1月底可望达到10个月继续处于明显的买方市场
今年1月成交量及 成交/新上市比 可望成为十多年来第二低,仅次于2009年。
但上市量比去年同期明显降低。一月底/二月初将逐渐进入春季市场的前期,我们应能见到明显上升的挂牌量。
预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比环比双跌。

Year Sales Lists Ratio
2002 2248 3626 62.0%
2003 1966 3810 51.6%
2004 1954 3039 64.3%
2005 1697 3360 50.5%
2006 1924 3471 55.4%
2007 1806 4067 44.4%
2008 1819 4675 38.9%
2009 762 3700 20.6%
2010 1923 5147 37.4%
2011 1819 4801 37.9%
2012 1577 5756 27.4%
2013 1325 4950 26.8% (est)

Response to "Gordon"

[Gordon thinks Bank of Canada's decision to keep rate low & delay rate increase is bullish for Vancouver RE]

gordon 啊,GF只说过利息早已低到不能再低多少的地步了。
你真的天真到以为央行持平利息,甚至降息0.5% 对房市还能有多少帮助吗? 还有,好好想想为什么央行为什么延缓涨息,对,央行在同一份报告中说明加拿大经济继续放缓 (完全在GF预料之内)。 央行基本上已用尽低利率这招数 (只剩0.5%的降息空间)。 低迷的经济及消费者/投资者信心对房市的影响远高过持续低利率对房市的影响。

再说,财长在这一年来缩紧房贷的手段,包括缩短偿还期及紧缩债务/收入比例, 已造成相当1%的增息。而严格化的收入证明要求已造成很多旧规原可以贷到款的人反而贷不到款。 未来几个月内已要实施的贷款保险机构新规又将进一步缩紧借贷。

还有,加拿大不断恶化的家庭负债量已到了银行开始自行提高某些用户利息的地步
见: 
Banks are raising rates - for those who can't manage their debt
Jan. 23 2013
Interest rates are going up.

The Bank of Canada left its trendsetting overnight rate alone on Wednesday and made it clear borrowing costs won’t increase any time soon.

But that news presents a false picture of what’s happening with the rates some people pay when they borrow money.

Selectively and quietly, the big banks have been cranking rates higher for credit line and credit card customers with a less than sterling record in managing their debts. It’s all part of a growing trend to tie the interest rates charged on loans more closely to the client’s credit history.

GF 如果升华到Gordon 及 马龙版主 的夸张版中文造诣,其实早有太多机会发出 "给多军响亮的巴掌" 的证据确凿的帖子, 只是GF认为这些哗众取宠的头条是没必要的举动。 真正有判断力的读者是不会被一些缺乏逻辑的帖子误导的。若真相信房市在这状况还会继续连升几年,那GF 也救不了这些人了。

大家就先坐看今年的 "小阳春" 有多热络吧。

Monday 21 January 2013

Richmond realtor James Wong strikes again

Richmond realtor James Wong said on Jan 21: "There is a slowing down in people coming to Van, especially foreign residents with a lot of money"
http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?p=860


Richmond Detached Homes – Sale price Versus City Assessment value (by James Wong)
-”A sample data extracted from the REBGV’s home sale for detached homes in Richmond recently revealed a fast deteriorating housing market. During the period from Dec 01, 2012 to Jan 15, 2013, nine of the ten Richmond detached homes that were sold with 5,000 to 8,000 sq ft land and between 5 to 30 years old:”
- the average sale price was 11.7% below the average city value
- When compared to early 2011, Richmond home prices were selling at around 10% to 15% above their city assessment values. The extend of the price drop in home prices for Richmond detached homes is estimated to be 21.7% to 26.7% below the peak prices of homes in the middle part of 2011.

Wednesday 16 January 2013

Who’s losing in the housing slump? Real estate agents


Financial Post: 房市不振,谁损失最多? 地产经纪
地产相关行业也将受冲击。
Who’s losing in the housing slump? Real estate agents
1/16/2013
"Home sales continue to plummet in most parts of the country, and with the decline has come a new reality for organized real estate: a drop in how much money everybody is making."

"It’s not just realtors feeling the pinch. Lawyers, renovators and even the government can expect to feel some sort of impact from a decline in sales. "

"..one of issue for agents is they get used to a certain sales level so any pullback seems catastrophic even if it just puts them back to where they were in 2010 — when, at the time, many would have been satisfied with their sales volume."

How did GF do on 2012 prediction?

Looking back 1 year ago, when I made the 2012 Vancouver RE prediction:


大傻的2012大温地区房市预测

SATURDAY, 7 JANUARY 2012
- 预测 HPI指标价在2012年上半将继续缓慢下滑的趋势, 而在下半年 (夏季尾声)加速下滑。

- 若政府在春季发表紧缩房贷的新政, 则可能在一两个月的缓冲期内见到短期房市稍趋热络的现象。但在新政执行后将见到房市加速冷却。

(I expect HPI benchmark price to continue gradual decline in 2012 1st half, while declining at a more rapid pace starting at end of summer. If the government announces mortgage rule tightening in Spring, then we can expect a short-term rebound in demand in 1-2 months post-announcement; however, we'll see the decline picking up pace soon after mortgage rule changes are implemented)

预测 Prediction:
A. 若无紧缩房贷新政 (If NO mortgage rule tightening in Spring 2012:)
1. REBGV HPI price 2012-6 vs 2012-1: -2 to -4% (+2.6%)
2.  Richmond,Van West will lead declines,SFH HPI by 2012-6 vs 2012-1: -3 to -5%. (Rmd -0.6%, VW -0.01%)
3. SFH Average price :2012-6 vs 2012-1: -4 to -6% (-7.4%)

4. REBGV HPI price 2012-12 vs 2012-1: -7 to -9% (-2.3%)
5.  Richmond,Van West will lead declines,SFH HPI by 2012-12 vs 2012-1:-8 to -10%. (Rmd -6.6%, VW -9.1%)
6. SFH Average price :2012-12 vs 2012-1: -10 to -12% (-5.9%)

B. 若有紧缩房贷新政 (If mortgage rule tightened in Spring 2012:)
1. REBGV HPI price 2012-6 vs 2012-1: -2 to -3% (actual: +2.6%)
2.  Richmond,Van West will lead declines,SFH HPI by 2012-6 vs 2012-1: -3 to -4%. (actual: Rmd -0.6%, VW -0.01%)
3. SFH Average price :2012-6 vs 2012-1: -4 to-5% (actual: -7.4%)
4. REBGV HPI price 2012-12 vs 2012-1: -9 to -11% (actual: -2.3%)
5.  Richmond,Van West will lead declines,SFH HPI by 2012-12 vs 2012-1: -10 to -12%. (actual: Rmd -6.6%, VW -9.1%)
6. SFH Average price :2012-12 vs 2012-1: -12 to -15% (actual: -5.9%)

Ended up, mortgage rules were tightened in 2012, but in summer, not spring.
GF's predictions was close for Richmond and Van West HPI, somewhat close for SFH Average price; however too pessimistic for REBGV HPI.

Stay tuned for my 2013 prediction this coming weekend.

Sunday 13 January 2013

Jan 1-11 Stats

2013 vs 2012
Sales: 431* vs 457 (-6%)
New List: 1766 vs 2220 (-20%)
Ratio: 24% vs 21%

Est Month-end Sales: 1325 vs 1577 (-16% YoY)
Est Month-end New lists: 4800 vs 5756 (-17%)
Est Month-end Inventory: 13200 vs 12544 (+5%)
Est MOI:9.5-10.5 vs 8 (2012)

Greater Vancouver MOI, estimated to be ~10 by end of January, will continue to stay well in buyer's market territory.
January 2013 sales and sale/new list ratio will likely continue to be 2nd worst in the last decade.
However, new lists are markedly fewer than same period in 2012.  Judging from sentiments on Chinese forums, I have a feeling many potential sellers are waiting for the "traditional spring market"  commencing after Chinese New Year (Feb 10).  We shall see.

I would expect the REBGV HPI benchmark price to continue decreasing both YoY and MoM.

大温地区滞销量在1月底可望达到10个月继续处于明显的买方市场
今年1月成交量及 成交/新上市比 可望成为十多年来第二低,仅次于2009年。
但上市量比去年同期明显降低。一月底/二月初将逐渐进入春季市场的前期,我们应能见到明显上升的挂牌量。
预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比环比双跌。

Year  Sale NewList Ratio
2002 2248 3626 62.0%
2003 1966 3810 51.6%
2004 1954 3039 64.3%
2005 1697 3360 50.5%
2006 1924 3471 55.4%
2007 1806 4067 44.4%
2008 1819 4675 38.9%
2009 762 3700 20.6%
2010 1923 5147 37.4%
2011 1819 4801 37.9%
2012 1577 5756 27.4%
2013 1320 4800 27.5% (est)

*Sales on Jan 2, the first business day of Jan/13, was unusually high.  I would attribute part of this spike to be spill-over from Dec 31, 2012, where no sale was tallied on MLS.  Excluding the first day of January for both 2013 and 2012, YoY sales saw a 19% decline.

Wednesday 9 January 2013

What direction are home prices headed?

Garry Marr | Jan 8, 2013

"It has become the new mantra of real estate watchers — there’s no crash coming, just a soft landing and an ever-so-minor correction in prices.

David Madani, an economist at Capital Economics and a noted bear who has predicted home prices will decline as much as 25% on average in Canada, says the rhetoric from organized real estate is typical for any housing cycle.

“Look what happened in the United States, people started calling for a soft landing. It’s almost to be expected. It’s the narrative in the boom, bust housing cycle. You can look to other countries, too,” Mr. Madani said. “The industry insiders say ‘don’t worry.’ ”
He sees the dropoff in sales as a standoff between buyers and sellers, and the next phase will see prices cut if people want to move their homes.
It has come down to an argument over how much prices will pull back. Phil Soper, chief executive of LePage, added his voice to the debate Tuesday with a report from his company calling for a “brief, mild correction,” with prices actually rising 1% overall by the end of 2013."
Someone commented the following yesterday in a forum.  I agree strongly.
"It really irks me that Madani must be described as a noted bear. They should be consistent and state stuff like:
Tsur Sommervile, a noted bull…
Cameron Muir, a commentator with a vested interest in a bull market continuing…
Any Canadian bank CEO, who stands to lose his/her job if shareholders are wiped out due to RE bets…
Ugh, MSM sucks as usual even when they do approach the bear community for viewpoints"

Friday 4 January 2013

Battle of Vancouver: SFH - Dec 2012

Dec 2012 SFH Battle Map:
- As predicted in November, Bear Forces successfully invaded North Vancouver and Burnaby East
- Bear Forces also liberated Burnaby North and Tsawwassen.
- Bear Forces had a major tank build-up in South Surrey/White Rock
- The following Bull Territories are facing imminent defeat: Van East & Burnaby South.











Nov 2012 SFH Battle Map:


Oct 2012 SFH Battle Map



* Areas with Positive Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bulls. 
* Areas with Negative Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bears.
* Each 1% = One Tank.

Thursday 3 January 2013

New Poll to start 2013 // GF最新民意调查见左

Please see left column for the new poll for 2013:

VS DEC/12, by end of june 2013 VANCOUVER HPI PRICE WILL BE?
比起2012年12月,你认为2013年6月底大温地区HPI指标价会:

> -10%           大跌
-5% to -10%   中跌
-1% to -5%     小跌 

+/- 1%            持平
+1% to +5%   小涨
+5% to +10% 中涨
> +10%          大涨 

Dec 2012 vs 2011 SFH sales stats:

Richmond: still sinking
Sales: -29%
Ratio: 54% vs 73%
HPI: -6.5% (-4.2%,-4.0%,-4.2%,-3.7%) (YoY % change of past months)  
Vancouver West:
Sales: -21%
Ratio: 51% vs 70%
HPI: -5.5% (-8.4%,-7.7%,-6.5%,-3.7%,0%)
Vancouver East: what happened to the hottest market in early 2012?
Sales: -43%
Ratio: 87% vs 127%
HPI: +0.2% (+0.5%,+1.9%,+3.2%,+4.8%,+5.5%)
Burnaby: HPI going negative YoY in 3..2…
Sales: -42%
Ratio: 103% vs 98%
HPI: +0.4% (+1.5%,+2.4%,+4.2%,+5.2%)
Coquitlam: another ‘hot’ market in early 2012.
Sales: -39%
Ratio: 94% vs 135%
HPI: +2.9% (+2.6%,+2.8%,+3.6%,+3.7%,+4.3%)

**************************************************************************

VS 6 months ago: SFH HPI

温西 Van West     -9.1%
西温 West Van     -8.6%
北温 North Van    -7.1%
新西敏 New West  -6.3%
本拿比 Burnaby    -6.2%
列治文 Richmond  -6.1%
温东 Van East      -4.1%
高贵林 Coquitlam  -3.0%

Battle of Vancouver: CONDO - Dec 2012

Dec 2012 Condo Battle Map:

- Bear Forces forcefully claimed highly strategic Richmond
- Bear Forces now control the entire pacific waterfront and YVR airport, cutting off Bull's access to HAM (Hostile Asian Mercenaries)
  - North Vancouver Bull Forces are being decimated from 6 tanks down to 1.  It may be next to fall.
- Bear Forces however lost Langley & Burnaby East to Bulls.
  - Burnaby East was +5.8% MoM, +7.2% in 3mo. Likely just a transient counter-attack.





* Areas with Positive Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bulls. 
* Areas with Negative Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bears.
* Each 1% = One Tank.

Nov 2012 Condo Battle Map:


vs Oct 2012 Condo Battle Map: