Feb 2013 Sales Stats and Summary

(Unofficial data)
Feb 2013 vs Feb 2012
Sales: 1800 vs 2545 (-29.3% YoY)
Lists: 4832 vs 5552 (-13% YoY)
Ratio: 37.3% vs 45.8%

Est Total Inventory: 14730 vs 14055 (+5% YoY)
MOI:8.1-8.3 vs 5.5 (Feb 2012)

February MOI (Months of Inventory) History:
2006: 2.7 
2007: 3.7 
2008: 4.3 
2009: 9.8 
2010: 4.6 
2011: 3.9 
2012: 5.5 
2013~ 8.2

* Note: Feb 2013 had 2 fewer business days than Feb 2012.

In over a decade, only 2009 had a February in buyer's market territory. We all know 2009 was the year of rebound from markedly lowered interest rate & globally coordinated stimulus / bank bail-outs, which is not going to be repeated in 2013 (discussed in previous posts).

MOI will continue to climb after March (which usually has similar MOI as Feb). If sales don't tick up by March, then we can almost safely expect a year-long continuous buyer's market for the rest of the year.

Feb 2013 Sales/Lists ratio may become the lowest in recent February history; sales will likely be 2nd lowest, second to 2009.

HPI benchmark price is expected to continue its decline, both MoM and YoY.

我们知道,滞销量大于7就是所谓"买方市场", 而过去十多年来的2月,只有2009年才是买方市场。三月过后,滞销量会一路上升。 
温哥华若连春季市场都没法突破买方市场,我们可以预测2013年又会带来一整年的下跌。
今年春节过年较以往晚了一两周。 未来2-4周的成交量是温哥华2013年房市最关键的数据。

今年2月成交/新上市比有机会成为十多年来最低 ,而 成交量可望成为十多年来第二低,仅次于2009年。

预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比环比双跌。

年份 成交 新上市 比例
year sales list sell/list 
2002 3008 4035 74.5%
2003 2760 3621 76.2%
2004 3066 3944 77.7%
2005 3068 4115 74.6%
2006 2941 4340 67.8%
2007 2859 4167 68.6%
2008 2676 5260 50.9%
2009 1480 3916 37.8%
2010 2473 4606 53.7%
2011 3097 5693 54.4%
2012 2545 5552 45.8%
2013 1800 4832 37.3% (est)