Saturday 30 March 2013

March Stats (unofficial)

March 2013 vs 2012
Sales: 2350 vs 2874 (-18%)
New List: 4811 vs 5843 (-18%)
Ratio: 49% vs 49%

Est Month-end Inventory: 15550 vs 15236(+2%)
MOI:6.6 months (est) vs 5.3 

大温地区滞销量在3月底可望达到6.6个月,继续处于买方市场。
通常每年3月为一整年中滞销量最低的月份, 
以下为过去几年3月滞销量 (Months of Inventory):

2006: 2.4 个月
2007: 3.1 个月
2008: 4.8 个月
2009: 6.4 个月
2010: 4.3 个月
2011: 3.2 个月
2012: 5.3 个月
2013~ 6.6个月

2013年3月大温房市处于平衡/买方市场。 三月过后,滞销量会开始上升。 
温哥华若连4月都没法突破买方市场,我们可以预测2013全年会处于买方市场 (即 供过于求)。

今年3月成交/新上市比 及 成交量 为史上第二低。

预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比下跌。环比大致持平。

年份 成交 新上市 比例
year sales list sell/list 
2001 2315 3805 60.8%
2002 3392 5168 65.6%
2003 3304 4272 77.3%
2004 4371 5709 76.6%
2005 3938 5083 77.5%
2006 4033 5767 69.9%
2007 3582 5456 65.7%
2008 2997 5674 52.8%
2009 2265 4385 51.7%
2010 3137 7004 44.8%
2011 4080 6797 60.0%
2012 2874 5843 49.2%
2013 2350 4811 49% (预测)

Thursday 21 March 2013

Richmond Realtor James Wong's Feb Report

Worth a read.
列治文地产经纪 James Wong 刚发表2月列市地产报告:
"列治文卖方继续面临严厉的挑战"

The stand off between Sellers and Buyers will not be solved soon, and the slow market will continue into next year. More sellers who need to sell will bring home prices down. The only way out for them to have their home sold is to lower their prices significantly to attract buyers. As home prices decline, more buyers are convinced to continue staying on the side-line. Home prices will continue to decline until more buyers are convinced to get back into the market.”

买卖双方的坚持现象不会很快解决。 列市疲弱的房市将持续至明年。
愈来愈多必须要卖的卖家会造成房价下跌。
这些卖方只有一条路走,就是大幅降价,以吸引买方注意。

但是,当房价不断下降,愈来愈多买方会更坚决地待在场外观察房市。

房价将持续下降,直到更多买方决定入市买房。

Wednesday 20 March 2013

Some thoughts and insights


If I were the Finance Minister, I’d also “scold” the banks publicly first, before dishing out another round of mortgage tightening. Perhaps Flaherty is unusually targeting “mortgage wars” to portray the banks as the “bad guys”, while stating the very next day that he did it out of “concern for the Canadian people“.
Increasing the qualifying rate of insured mortgages to “6%” (or say, 5-year-fixed-rate Plus x%) could also be a logical rule change by the Finance Minister (beside tinkering with down payment req / amortization / debt ratios)
A member at a RE forum also stated "according to his friends involved with big bank mortgage underwriting", 
“CMHC has already made additional changes to their guidelines in the last couple of weeks. Deals that were automatically rubber stamped are now being reviewed with a fine tooth comb and/or declined, the latter of which are being shuffled off to Genworth now.” 
Perhaps further rule changes were indeed the weapons that Flaherty’s threats were backed with.
_________________________
Another topic: ever wonder why some properties are listed on MLS as “Sold with 0 day on market”? A realtor said “I suspect that realtor has sold it first and only placed it on MLS for Medallion points at the Board”.
The reason I found this interesting was because some pumpers were using the “sold with 0 day on market” as a sign that things are heating up with bidding wars again. Those Medallion points are indeed hard to come by in this poor market ; )

Sales Stats (5 day moving average)


Quick YoY sales comparison: 
5-(business)day moving average

Mar 6-12
2013: 114 sales/day
2012: 115 sales/day (-1%)
2011: 164 sales/day (-30%)
Mar 13-19
2013: 116 sales/day
2012: 150 sales/day (-23%)
2011: 180 sales/day (-36%)
Spring officially starts today, let’s see how the Spring housing market unfolds! 
(Bulls are placing a lot of hope on April 1st HST-expiry)

Tuesday 19 March 2013

Mar 1-18 Stats

3月1-18日 大温销售数据
2013 vs 2012
Sales: 1360 vs 1535 (-11.4%)
New List: 2980 vs 3192 (-6.6%)
Ratio: 45.6% vs 48.1%

Est Month-end Sales: 2240 vs 2874 (-22%)
Est Month-end New Lists: 4950 vs 5843 (-15%)
Est Month-end Inventory: 15770 vs 15236(+3.5%)
MOI:7.0-7.2  vs 5.3 (Mar 2012)

MOI is expected to reach 7.1, holding in "Buyer's Market"。


Historical Months of Inventory for March:
2006: 2.4 个月
2007: 3.1 个月
2008: 4.8 个月
2009: 6.4 个月
2010: 4.3 个月
2011: 3.2 个月
2012: 5.3 个月
2013~ 7.1个月

我们知道,滞销量大于7就是所谓"买方市场", 而过去十多年来,没有一年的3月是买方市场。三月过后,滞销量会一路上升。 
温哥华若连3-4月都没法突破买方市场,我们可以预测2013年又会带来一整年的下跌。
今年3月成交/新上市比 及 成交量 可望成为有史以来第一/第二低。
预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比下跌。环比大致持平。

year sales list sell/list 
20012315380560.8%
20023392516865.6%
20033304427277.3%
20044371570976.6%
20053938508377.5%
20064033576769.9%
20073582545665.7%
20082997567452.8%
20092265438551.7%
20103137700444.8%
20114080679760.0%
20122874584349.2%
2013 2240 4950 45.2% (Est)

Tuesday 12 March 2013

FP: Moody’s analysis contemplates 44% drop in Canadian housing prices



Moody's 信评机构: 加国房市最坏打算见 44% 跌幅

13/03/12 2:01 PM ET
business.financialpost...=7ded-fac6

A severe economic shock, such as the kind that hit Japan in the early 1990s and California and Nevada in 2006, would have to knock Canadian housing prices down by 44% to cause securities linked to Canadian mortgages to lose the highest ratings assigned by Moody’s Investors Service.
一个严重的经济冲击,可能让加国房价下跌44%, 负面影响房贷证卷评级。 

“As with Australia, Spain and the U.K., we expect house prices in Canada to suffer the most due to the misalignment of current house prices with historic fundamentals,” Moody’s said.
Moody's 认为加拿大的房市,如同澳洲,西班牙,及英国,会受到最重大的创伤, 因为房价与经济基础脱离太远了。

In Canada, the growth in house prices over the past 10 years has ‘’far outstripped” the growth in incomes, according to Moody’s.
在加拿大,房价10年来的涨幅远远超过收入的涨幅。

“Think of it like an elastic [being stretched],” explains Mr. Connor of National Bank Financial. “The snap back is going to be a lot harder.”
就像一条拉地很紧的橡皮筋一般,他的回弹将是极为猛烈的。

Saturday 9 March 2013

Mar 1-8 Sales Stats


2013 vs 2012
Sales: 650 vs 790 (-18%)
New Lists: 1583 vs 1697 (-7%)
Ratio: 41% vs 47%

Est Month-end Sales: 2150 vs 2874 (-25%)
Est Month-end Lists: 4950 vs 5843 (-15%)
Est Month-end Inventory: 15840 vs 15236(+4%)
MOI:7.2-7.6 (Est) vs 5.3 (Mar/12)

Greater Vancouver is expected to reach 7.4 months of inventory by end of March, remaining in "Buyer's Market" territory.
March usually has the lowest MOI in a year.
Below are historical March MOI's:

2006: 2.4 个月
2007: 3.1 个月
2008: 4.8 个月
2009: 6.4 个月
2010: 4.3 个月
2011: 3.2 个月
2012: 5.3 个月
2013~ 7.4个月

In the last 10+ years, not a single March was in Buyer's market (even 2009).
I expect MOI to creep up after March/April, making 2013 a year entirely in "Buyer's Market" territory.

I expect Greater Vancouver composite HPI benchmark price to continue declining YoY, while holding steady vs last month (before continuing its descent after April)


年份 成交 新上市 比例
year sales list sell/list 
20012315380560.8%
20023392516865.6%
20033304427277.3%
20044371570976.6%
20053938508377.5%
20064033576769.9%
20073582545665.7%
20082997567452.8%
20092265438551.7%
20103137700444.8%
20114080679760.0%
20122874584349.2%
2013 2150 4950 43.4% (est)

Thursday 7 March 2013

Vancouver & Richmond recent sale prices

VANCOUVER
2525 w king Edward ave

4 yrs 3727 sq/ft, lot 6222 sq/ft
现开价 2.78m (List)
成交价 2.45m (Sold)
估价 2.594m (Assessed)

1055 E 64 ave
原开价 749k
降价后 738k
成交价 700k
估价 703k

4290 Nautilus Close
原开价 1.79m
成交价 1.55m
估价 1.573m

6907 Tyne st
原开价 848k
成交价 810k
估价 878k

RICHMOND
11060 Bamfield gt
2950 sq ft, lot 5312 sq ft
原开价 699k
降价后 649k
成交价 599k
估价 674k

5940 No 1 rd
5343 sq ft lot 
上次交易开价 735k
原买价 758k (2011-1月)
原开价 699k
成交价 699k
估价 831k

10-8433 Bennett rd
11 yrs 2 bed 2 bath 1134 sq ft TH
原买价 423k (2010-9月)
原开价 450k
降价后 436k
成交价 405k
估价 427k

74-9339 Alberta 
9 yrs 3 bed 2 bath 1180 sq ft TH
原买价 434k (2010-12月)
原开价 459k
降价后 439k
成交价 435k
估价 448k

225-13020 No 2 rd
9 yrs 2 bd 3 bath 1316 sq ft
原开价 469k
降价后 450k
成交价 440k
估价 456k

17-9671 Capella dr
3 bd 3 bath 1426 sq ft TH
原开价 495k
降价后 479k
成交价 455k
估价 474k


Source: RET forum user "Ham"

Tuesday 5 March 2013

Battle of Vancouver: SFH - Feb 2013

Feb 2013 SFH Battle Update:
- As predicted in January, Bear Forces successfully invaded Port Coquitlam and N Delta.
- Charged with triumphant spirit, Bear Forces also liberated West VancouverPort Moody, and Tsawwassen.
- The following Bull Territories are facing imminent defeat: Coquitlam & Cloverdale
- Coquitlam is where the Last Stand of REBGV Bull Forces takes place. The Bulls are down to the Very Last tank battalion. If they are defeated, the Bulls will be chased South of Fraser River, and possibly soon, South of the Border.








Jan 2012 SFH Battle Map:

Dec 2012 SFH Battle Map:











Nov 2012 SFH Battle Map:


Oct 2012 SFH Battle Map



* Areas with Positive Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bulls. 
* Areas with Negative Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bears.
* Each 1% = One Tank.

Monday 4 March 2013

REBGV SFH Sales # vs 2012 & 2011


SFH Sales # by region (Feb ’13 vs ’12 vs ’11)
Van West:
’13: 104
’12: 177 (-41%)
’11: 242 (-57%)
Van East:
’13: 77
’12: 125 (-38%)
’11: 165 (-53%)
Richmond:
’13: 89
’12: 119 (-25%)
’11: 251 (-65%)
West Van:
’13: 31
’12: 68 (-54%)
’11: 92 (-66%)
Burnaby:
’13: 60
’12: 105 (-43%)
’11: 105 (-43%)

Feb/13 SFH Sales Stats by Region

2月份 2013 vs 2012 大温独立屋 分区 数据:

Richmond: HPI continues to trend down, now down 9% vs a year ago.
Sales: -25% YoY
Ratio: 36% vs 40%
HPI YoY % Change : -9.0% (-6.3%,-6.5%,-4.2%,-4.0%,-4.2%,-3.7%) (last few months' YoY % change) 
 
Vancouver West: Sales down 41%, HPI down 9.2% vs a year ago.
Sales: -41% YoY
Ratio: 33% vs 55%
HPI YoY % Change: -9.2% (-7.5%,-5.5%,-8.4%,-7.7%,-6.5%,-3.7%,0%)

Vancouver East: What happened to the "Hot" Van East a year ago?
Sales: -38% YoY
Ratio: 35% vs 50%
HPI YoY % Change: -2.7% (-0.5%,+0.2%,+0.5%,+1.9%,+3.2%,+4.8%,+5.5%)

Burnaby:  Major sales decline of -42%.  Price erosion continues.
Sales: -42% YoY
Ratio: 31% vs 53%
HPI YoY % Change: -3.1% (-2.3%,+0.4%,+1.5%,+2.4%,+4.2%,+5.2%)

Coquitlam:  Major sales decline of -46%.
Sales: -46% YoY
Ratio: 37% vs 59%
HPI YoY % Change: +1.4% (+2.4%,+2.9%,+2.6%,+2.8%,+3.6%,+3.7%,+4.3%)

Feb 2013 REBGV Official Stats Package

2013-02 大温房市官方数据 Feb REBGV Stats (PDF)

http://www.rebgv.org/news-statistics/home-sales-continue-below-average-pace

Historical Stats see here

CBS news: Chinese RE Bubble


"China's economy has become the second largest in the world, but its rapid growth may have created the largest housing bubble in history."

Major Chinese Developer "Wan Ke (万科)" CEO Mr. Wang Shi (王石) also spoke about the Chinese RE bubble.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxjwhk1ktNw&list=FLsN32BtMd0IoByjJRNF12cw&index=1