May1-17 Stats

2013 vs 2012
Sales: 1720 vs 1698 (+1%)
Lists: 3522 vs 4032 (-12.6%)
Ratio: 48.8% vs 42.1%

Est Month-end Sales: 2850 vs 2853 (-)
Est Month-end Inventory: 17760 vs 17835(-0.4%)
Est Month-end MOI: 6.2-6.5 months  vs 6.3

This May, both Sales and MOI will reach worst or 2nd worst levels in over a decade.
Current MOI is at "Balanced-to-Buyer's Market"

May historical MOI (Months of Inventory):
2006: 2.3 
2007: 2.9 
2008: 5.4 
2009: 3.9 
2010: 5.5 
2011: 4.3 
2012: 6.3 
2013~ 6.3

May had been a "hotter" month than April.  Sales volume is similar to May 2012 so far.
This is not quite "good news" yet for RE industry, as May 2012 was the worst May in at least the past decade.

Inventory level has dropped to slightly lower than same time last year.
Some have argue that the amount of "motivated sellers" have probably increased.
If so, we can expect the price response in the upcoming REBGV/Teranet HPI numbers.

We should be able to expect MOI to trend up after May.  Second half of 2013 should be similar or slightly worse than 2012-H2 (due to tighter lending rules and stagnant job market in GVA).  We shall see soon enough.

今年5月房市较4月热络，而与去年同月的成交量亦不相上下 (这还不算是好消息，因为去年5月是过去10多年最差的5月)。
我们知道, 5月过后,滞销量会一路上升。 今年下半年的房市走向，预计将类似于2012年下半，可能稍加恶化 (因为房贷政策继续紧缩及大温就业市场不见好转)。 我们只能拭目以待。

预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比下跌。环比大致持平。

May historical Sales
2005: 4434 
2006: 4297 
2007: 4331 
2008: 3002 
2009: 3524 
2010: 3156 
2011: 3377 
2012: 2853
2013: 2850 (est)