Wednesday 26 June 2013

Reads of the day

BoE warns banks of risk of sharp global interest rate rise
Wed Jun 26, 2013 5:33am EDT
(Reuters) - The Bank of England warned banks and borrowers on Wednesday about risks from a potential abrupt rise in global interest rates, and said banks might need to further bolster their capital cushions to protect against this.


Mortgage Brokers: 50% hit thanks to buy downs, rate sites
The success and popularity of rate sites are forcing brokers to buy down rates, and squeezing bps until there is almost nothing left, says one broker, who estimates he has lost an estimated 50 per cent of his potential revenue.

"What the Heck is Happening to Five-Year Fixed-Mortgage Rates?" 
(With comparison of 5y-fixed vs 5y-var vs 10y-fixed)

Saturday 15 June 2013

June 1-14 Stats and Projection

2013 vs 2012
Sales: 1320 vs 1226 (+7.7%)
Lists: 2569 vs 2789 (-7.9%)
Ratio: 51% vs 44%

Est Month-end Sales: 2420 vs 2362 (+2.5%)
Est Month-end Inventory: 17750 vs 18493(-4%)
Months of Inventory:7.2-7.4  vs 7.8 (Jun/12)

Greater Vancouver MOI will rise back up to ~7.3 months by June-end (from 6.0 last month), returning us to "Buyer's Market".
- June/13 MOI will likely be Top-3 highest in the last 10+ years.
- June/13 Sales will likely be Second Lowest in the last 10+ years.

June Historical MOI:
2005: 2.4 
2006: 2.7 
2007: 2.9 
2008: 7.5 
2009: 3.1 
2010: 5.9 
2011: 4.6 
2012: 7.8 
2013: 7.3 (est)

We know that MOI will most likely continue to rise for the remainder of the year.
Vancouver RE in the second half of 2013 may be similar or slightly worse than 2012-H2 for the following reasons:
-  Ongoing tightening of lending standards / OSFI oversight
-  Ongoing weakness of Vancouver/BC jobs market in relation to National trend.
-  Risk of continued rise of bond yield causing fixed rates to elevate.
-  Ongoing global economic risk (Euro/China/Japan)

June Historical Sales:
2005: 4333 
2006: 3951 
2007: 4244 
2008: 2425 
2009: 4259 
2010: 2972
2011: 3262
2012: 2362
2013: 2420 (est)

Wednesday 5 June 2013

Battle of Vancouver: May 2013 SFH Battle Update

Now that tax season and vacations are over and done with, we head back to the Battlefield!

May 2013 SFH Battle Update:
- Fraser River turned crimson with Bovine blood as the REBGV Bulls failed to defend their Last Stand in Coquitlam.  The Bear Army pressed forward and took control of North Surrey for the first time in this War.
- The Bears diverted their main attack forces in Van West & Richmond to solidify control of outskirts such as West Van, Burnaby, Ladner, Poco & Tsawwassen.
The following Bull Territories are facing imminent defeat: Surrey.

May 2013 SFH Battle Map:



Feb/Mar 2013 SFH Battle Map:







Jan 2013 SFH Battle Map:
Dec 2012 SFH Battle Map:










Nov 2012 SFH Battle Map:


Oct 2012 SFH Battle Map



* Areas with Positive Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bulls. 
* Areas with Negative Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bears.
* Each 1% = One Tank.

May 2011-2013 Greater Vancouver SFH Stats by Region

Richmond
Sales: +26% vs 2012; -6% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 42% vs 26% vs 39% (2011)
HPI $ YoY : -8.0% (-9.1,-8.4,-9,-6.3,-6.5,-4.2,-4) (prev months' YoY % change) 
 
Vancouver West
Sales: +53% vs 2012; -18% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 58% vs 27% vs 67% (2011)
HPI $ YoY-8.0% (-8.5,-9.1,-9.2,-7.5,-5.5)

Vancouver East
Sales: +4.6% vs 2012; -25% vs 2011.
S/L Ratio: 64% vs 45% vs 79% (2011)
HPI $ YoY-2.8% (-2.8,-2.6,-2.7,-0.5,+0.2)

Burnaby
Sales-15% vs 2012; -48% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 37% vs 37% vs 74% (2011)
HPI $ YoY-4% (-4.7,-4.9,-3.1,-2.3,+0.4)

Coquitlam
Sales-12% vs 2012; -30% vs 2011)
S/L Ratio: 51% vs 46% vs 70% (2011)
HPI $ YoY-1.8% (-0.4,+0.8,+1.4,+2.4,+2.9)

North Van
Sales-3% vs 2012; -20% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 56% vs 49% vs 74% (2011)
HPI $ YoY-3.3% (-2.6%,-2.4,-2.9,-2.5,-3.7,+0.3)

* Richmond and Van West SFH showed marked improvement in number of sales. Price gap vs 2012 narrowed slightly, but is still at -8%.

* Burnaby, Coquitlam, and North Van showed worse sales and ongoing/worsening YoY price decline.

Saturday 1 June 2013

May 1-31 Stats

2013 vs 2012
Sales: 2960 vs 2853 (+4%)
Lists: 5658 vs 6724 (-16%)
Ratio: 52% vs 42%

Est Inventory: 17300 vs 17835(-3%)
Months of Inventory:5.8-5.9 vs 6.3 (May 2012)

MOI is projected to be ~5.8 at end of May, which is in "Balanced Market"

2013 May MOI was the 2nd highest in the last 10+ years
2013 May Sales was the 2nd lowest in the last 10+ years

Historical May MOIs (Months of Inventory):
2006: 2.3 
2007: 2.9 
2008: 5.4 
2009: 3.9 
2010: 5.5 
2011: 4.3 
2012: 6.3 
2013~ 5.8

MOI is expected to start rising in June.
Vancouver RE market for the 2nd half of 2013 is projected to be similar or slightly worse than 2012-H2, due to tighter lending conditions and lackluster labor market.  Fixed interest rates may start creeping up, something to look out for.

Historical May Sales
2005: 4434 
2006: 4297 
2007: 4331 
2008: 3002 
2009: 3524 
2010: 3156 
2011: 3377 
2012: 2853
2013: 2960 (est)