Saturday 15 June 2013

June 1-14 Stats and Projection

2013 vs 2012
Sales: 1320 vs 1226 (+7.7%)
Lists: 2569 vs 2789 (-7.9%)
Ratio: 51% vs 44%

Est Month-end Sales: 2420 vs 2362 (+2.5%)
Est Month-end Inventory: 17750 vs 18493(-4%)
Months of Inventory:7.2-7.4  vs 7.8 (Jun/12)

Greater Vancouver MOI will rise back up to ~7.3 months by June-end (from 6.0 last month), returning us to "Buyer's Market".
- June/13 MOI will likely be Top-3 highest in the last 10+ years.
- June/13 Sales will likely be Second Lowest in the last 10+ years.

June Historical MOI:
2005: 2.4 
2006: 2.7 
2007: 2.9 
2008: 7.5 
2009: 3.1 
2010: 5.9 
2011: 4.6 
2012: 7.8 
2013: 7.3 (est)

We know that MOI will most likely continue to rise for the remainder of the year.
Vancouver RE in the second half of 2013 may be similar or slightly worse than 2012-H2 for the following reasons:
-  Ongoing tightening of lending standards / OSFI oversight
-  Ongoing weakness of Vancouver/BC jobs market in relation to National trend.
-  Risk of continued rise of bond yield causing fixed rates to elevate.
-  Ongoing global economic risk (Euro/China/Japan)

June Historical Sales:
2005: 4333 
2006: 3951 
2007: 4244 
2008: 2425 
2009: 4259 
2010: 2972
2011: 3262
2012: 2362
2013: 2420 (est)

No comments:

Post a Comment