Wednesday 31 July 2013

July Stats

7月底 大温销售数据
2013 vs 2012
Sales: 2950 vs 2098(+41%)
Lists: 4840 vs 4802 (+1%)
Ratio: 62% vs 45%

Est Month-end Inventory: 16900 vs 18081(-6.5%)
Months of Inventory:5.7  vs 8.6 (last July) vs 6.5 (last month)

大温地区滞销量在7月底达到5.7 个月,处于 平衡 市场。
大温地区成交量在7月大幅改善,约等于过去11年的平均7月成交量。

如同月初的预测, 明显上升的固定利息造成了已有 pre-approval 的买方急着在 expire 之前出手, 造成成交量短期攀升。 
GF认为这短期的成交量上扬只不过是把下半年的成交量移前。 在8月底9月初我们可能会见到市场加速冷却的趋向。

Friday 19 July 2013

Realtors caught in market downdraft revisit retirement plans

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/retirement-rrsps/hewing-to-a-new-reality/article13323262/?cmpid=rss1&utm_source=dlvr.it&_rob_utm_medium=twitter

- Expect to hear more of the RE Bust victim stories in the coming years..

Wednesday 3 July 2013

2013 Mid-year summary

Mid-year Stats (June 2013 vs Dec 2012)
Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI (+1.9%)(vs +2.7% Jun/12 vs Dec/11)
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI (+1.7%)(vs +3.4%)
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI (+2.2%)(vs +2.2%)

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average (+3.5%)
-Greater Vancouver attached average (+2.2%)
-Greater Vancouver apartments average (+17.2%)

Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
- Burnaby S SFD +2.4% (vs +7.1% Jun/12 vs Dec/11)
- Coquitlam SFD +0.6% (vs +6.1%)
- North Van SFD +4.4% (vs +3.6%)
- New West SFD +3.7% (vs +4.6%)
- West Van SFD +2.7% (vs +7.8%)
- Van East SFD +2.0% (vs +4.5%)
- Van West SFD +3.3% (vs +3.9%)
- Richmond SFD +0.6% (vs -0.5%)

2013 Vancouver RE still recorded Mid-year price gain (vs year-start), though the % gain was slower than last year (and most years previously) in most areas.

Greater Vancouver Sales are higher than last year, however the sales pick-up varied greatly with region. The record-low Fixed mtg rates this Spring was likely the main contributing factor – for the people who can still qualify for mortgages.

In May/June, for SFH we see the Core (HAM/expensive areas) sales increasing at +30% to +50% YoY, while outlying areas (eg Coquitlam, Burnaby, New West, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows) sales were flat, or even lower than last year.

If Fixed rates continue to creep higher, we can expect to see people with mortgage pre-approvals jumping into the market before it expires (usually 60 day rate-hold). So we might continue to see a busier July than last year. However, if rates stay high, I expect to see a worse 2nd half than 2012-H2..





June 2011-2013 Greater Vancouver SFH Stats by Region

Richmond 
Sales: +51% vs 2012; -27% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 48% vs 24% vs 48% (2011)
HPI $ YoY: -5.5% (-8,-9.1,-8.4,-9,-6.3,-6.5,-4.2,-4) (prev months' YoY % change)  
 
Vancouver West
Sales: +42% vs 2012; -32% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 57% vs 31% vs 65% (2011)
HPI $ YoY-6.1% (-8,-8.5,-9.1,-9.2,-7.5,-5.5)

Vancouver East 
Sales: +32% vs 2012; -22% vs 2011.
S/L Ratio: 55% vs 37% vs 73% (2011)
HPI $ YoY-2.2% (-2.8,-2.8,-2.6,-2.7,-0.5,+0.2)

Burnaby
Sales: -5% vs 2012; -34% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 43% vs 38% vs 55% (2011)
HPI $ YoY-4% (-4,-4.7,-4.9,-3.1,-2.3,+0.4)

Coquitlam
Sales: +3% vs 2012; -29% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 58% vs 51% vs 60% (2011)
HPI $ YoY-2.4% (-1.8,-0.4,+0.8,+1.4,+2.4,+2.9)

North Van
Sales: +36% vs 2012; -35% vs 2011
HPI $ YoY-2.9% (-3.3,-2.6,-2.4,-2.9,-2.5,-3.7,+0.3)